SPATIO-TEMPORAL RISK MAPPING OF JAPANESEabsttract

This study investigates the spatio-temporal trends and endemicity of JE and AES in the Gaya and Nawada districts of Bihar between 2016 and 2020. JE/AES have become a great menace to public health in India, especially in the tropical and subtropical environs. This study uses spatial statistical techniques such as Global and Local Moran’s I, cluster and outlier analysis, and Getis Ord Gi* hot spot analysis to identify high-risk blocks and the emerging spatial patterns. The epidemiological data were collected from the State Malaria Office and analysed through GIS based methodology. The results highlight clustering of JE/AES cases in the Gaya district, with Manpur, Imamganj, and Atri emerging as the persistent high-risk blocks. Despite a general drop in reported incidences over the years, the spatial clusters and hot spots continue to exist, thus depicting localized endemicity. The Nawada district consistently records lesser incidences and emerges mostly as a cold spot zone. The study, therefore, highlights the importance of spatial epidemiology to ensure focused surveillance and control of diseases. In identifying the persistent high-risk areas, it imparts support for rationalizing resources and public health interventions. The study further exemplifies how spatial statistical tools can be of great use in decision-making for the mitigation of vector-borne diseases at a local level.